Oscar by-the-numbers: Version 3.0

Now that the Oscar nominees have been announced, every entertainment writer and media outlet will offer predictions on who should win and who will win. Trying to second-guess Academy voters might be fun, but two years ago I wondered if it were possible to take a more methodical approach to predicting the Best Picture winner. So I devised a simple system and noted how each nominee fared at the Internet Movie Database (imdb.com), Rottentomatoes.com, and Amazon.com—two of them an indicator of fan support, and one a reflection of how critics felt. Then I added the number of Oscar nominations each film received, and the total of Best Picture nominations for each.

It seemed simple enough—maybe too simple—but in 2010 Oscar by-the-numbers correctly predicted a Best Picture win by “The Hurt Locker” (72.8) over “Avatar” (68.6), “Inglourious Basterds” (66.4), “Up” (65.2), “Up in the Air” (65.0), “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (63.6), “An Education” (57.6), “District 9” (57.0), “The Blind Side” (51.6), and “A Serious Man” (51.4).

In 2011 the system failed when the numbers were close, predicting a win for “The Social Network” (47.9) over eventual Best Picture winner “The King’s Speech” (46.0) and “Inception” (40.6), “Black Swan” (38.4), “True Grit” (36.7), “Toy Story 3” (34.1), “127 Hours” (33.5), “Winter’s Bone” (33.4), “The Fighter” (32.4), and “The Kids Are All Right” (32.3).

So how do this year’s Best Picture nominees fare?

"The Artist"
Imdb - 8.5
Rotten Tomatoes - 9.7
Amazon - 9.0
Oscar nominations – 10
Best Picture nominations – 24
Total: 61.2

"Hugo"
Imdb - 8.2
Rotten Tomatoes - 9.4
Amazon - 9.0
Oscar nominations - 11
Best Picture nominations - 16
Total: 53.6

"The Descendants"
Imdb - 7.9
Rotten Tomatoes - 8.9
Amazon - 8.0
Oscar nominations – 5
Best Picture nominations – 19
Total: 48.8

"Moneyball"
Imdb - 7.8
Rotten Tomatoes - 9.5
Amazon - 8.0
Oscar nominations - 6
Best Picture nominations – 9
Total: 40.3

"Midnight in Paris"
Imdb - 7.8
Rotten Tomatoes - 9.3
Amazon - 8.0
Oscar nominations – 4
Best Picture nominations – 11
Total: 40.1

"The Help"
Imdb - 8.1
Rotten Tomatoes - 7.6
Amazon - 9.0
Oscar nominations – 4
Best Picture nominations – 10
Total: 38.7

"The Tree of Life"
Imdb - 7.1
Rotten Tomatoes - 8.4
Amazon - 6.0
Oscar nominations - 3
Best Picture nominations – 14
Total: 38.5

"War Horse"
Imdb - 7.4
Rotten Tomatoes - 7.8
Amazon (projected) – 7.6
Oscar nominations - 6
Best Picture nominations – 5
Total: 33.8

"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
Imdb - 6.2
Rotten Tomatoes - 4.8
Amazon - 8.0
Oscar nominations – 2
Best Picture nominations – 3
Total: 24

So there you have it. Oscar by-the-numbers says “The Artist” will win Best Picture . . . though, of course, anything can happen.

Who should win? I actually liked “The Artist” a lot, and think it should win for its originality and its suave-yet-carefree homage to Hollywood. It’s fun and there’s a postmodern cleverness to the film that’s appealing as well. The most satisfying films of the year, for me, were this one, and “The Help,” which won’t win because it deliberately sought to elicit an emotional response from audiences.

But I’d be very surprised if Octavia Spencer didn’t win Best Supporting Actress for her performance as an outspoken maid in “The Help,” and I’d be absolutely floored if the Academy didn’t honor 81-year-old Christopher Plummer with his first Oscar, given his distinguished career, for his multi-faceted performance in “Beginners” as an elderly man who comes out of the closet in his twilight years AND has to deal with cancer. Are you freaking kidding me?

If “The Artist” does win Best Picture, look for “The Descendants” to take home a Best Actor consolation prize for George Clooney—though the evening could very well turn into a lovefest for “The Artist,” in which case Jean Dujardin could win. Does Brad Pitt stand a chance with “Moneyball”? Good as he was, and the same with Jonah Hill as his sidekick, I don’t think the numbers add up. As for Best Director, the Academy has gone against the Best Picture director only twice in the last 10 years, so Michel Hazanavicius has to have the inside track. But I wouldn't be surprised if the voters went with Scorsese as consolation for "Hugo" falling short in the Best Picture department.

The big coin-toss of the evening will be who brings home the Best Actress statue. Glenn Close plays a man with uncanny accuracy in “Albert Nobbs” (please, no jokes about typecasting), Meryl Streep is superb as an elderly Margaret Thatcher, Viola Davis goes for the heartstrings in “The Help,” Rooney Mara might get the daring vote for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” and Michelle Williams could get the darling vote for her performance as Marilyn Monroe. Williams made you see her character in a different way, which is something that Meryl Streep didn’t do, but I think that voters who were impressed by Davis’ performance in “Doubt” might swing her way this year.

Don’t even talk to me about Best Animated Film. I still don’t get why “Rio” has been overlooked, and I haven’t seen the two foreign entries. I have no prediction there. For Best Cinematography, though, I’d be very surprised if the one bone that “The Tree of Life” got this award season wasn’t tossed in the direction of Emmanuel Lubezki.

But whoa . . .  I’m starting to get way too into the game of predictions. Maybe I’d better just find a way to apply numbers to the other categories as well, next year.